Two tokens, both trading at $1.00. One has 100 million tokens outstanding. The other has 1 billion tokens outstanding, with 900 million still locked and waiting to unlock. They look identical at a glance. But they are not. The second token's true implied value is 10× higher — and that locked supply will hit the market eventually, creating sustained selling pressure the first token does not face.
This is the problem FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) is designed to solve.
What Is FDV?
FDV stands for Fully Diluted Valuation. It is the hypothetical market capitalisation of a cryptocurrency if every token that will ever exist were circulating and trading at the current price today — including:
- Currently circulating tokens
- Tokens locked in team and advisor vesting schedules
- Tokens allocated to investors (VC, private sale) still unvested
- Tokens reserved for ecosystem incentives not yet distributed
- Tokens allocated to future staking rewards
- Any tokens yet to be minted according to the tokenomics schedule
Formula: FDV = Current Token Price × Total Token Supply
FDV vs. Market Cap: The Critical Difference
Market cap = Current price × circulating supply (tokens actually trading today)
FDV = Current price × total supply (every token that will ever exist)
Example: A presale token trades at $0.10. 50 million tokens are circulating (10% of the 500 million total supply). The remaining 450 million tokens are locked and vest over 3 years.
- Market cap: $0.10 × 50,000,000 = $5 million
- FDV: $0.10 × 500,000,000 = $50 million
The market cap looks modest ($5M). The FDV reveals the real picture: at the current price, the project implies a $50M total value — and $45M worth of tokens will enter circulation over the next 3 years.
Why FDV Matters for Presale Investors
1. It Reveals Whether You Are Actually Buying Cheap
Presale investors often celebrate a "low market cap" token at $5M, not realising the FDV is $500M. For the token to appreciate from the presale price, the market must be willing to value the project above $500M by the time all tokens are circulating. Many mediocre projects cannot sustain this — the eventual circulating supply expansion pushes the price down even as they build.
2. It Predicts Future Sell Pressure
The gap between market cap and FDV represents the value of locked tokens that will eventually hit the market. A project with $10M market cap and $200M FDV has $190M in locked value that will unlock over time. Each unlock event creates selling pressure. The speed of unlocks (the vesting schedule) determines how concentrated or distributed that pressure is.
3. It Enables Apples-to-Apples Comparison
Comparing market caps across tokens with different circulating supplies is misleading. FDV puts all tokens on an equal footing, enabling genuine valuation comparison between a project at 5% circulating supply and one at 80% circulating supply.
How to Calculate FDV
- Find the current token price (CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap)
- Find the total token supply (whitepaper, CoinGecko, or the token contract)
- Multiply: FDV = Price × Total Supply
Example with Monad: MON presale price $0.025 × 100 billion total supply = $2.5B FDV. At launch, only 10.8% was circulating. Market cap at launch: $0.025 × 10.8B = $270M. FDV: $2.5B. The ratio tells you how much future supply inflation to expect.
What FDV Ratio Is Reasonable?
The FDV-to-market-cap ratio (FDV/MC) tells you how much of the total supply is circulating:
- FDV/MC = 1.0: 100% of supply is circulating — no future dilution
- FDV/MC = 2.0: Only 50% of supply is circulating
- FDV/MC = 10.0+: Less than 10% of supply is circulating — massive future dilution ahead
New presale tokens often have FDV/MC ratios of 5–20×. This is not automatically bad — it depends on whether the project can grow fast enough to absorb the incoming supply. What matters is comparing FDV to what established, comparable projects trade at in fully-diluted terms. For how to use FDV in full presale valuation, see our presale risk and reward guide. For understanding how hardcap relates to FDV, see our hardcap definition guide.
FDV Red Flags in Presales
- FDV above $500M for a pre-product project: Exceptional claims require exceptional evidence
- Very low circulating supply at TGE (under 5%): Means 95%+ of supply will unlock post-launch, creating sustained selling pressure
- No vesting schedule published: Without knowing when locked tokens unlock, FDV dilution risk is completely unknown
- Marketing emphasises market cap but not FDV: A common tactic to make a project look cheaper than it is
The flip side of FDV is the minimum raise — if a project does not reach its softcap, tokens may never even list. Understanding the relationship between FDV and minimum viable fundraising is covered in our softcap definition guide.
Glossary
- FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation)
- Current token price × total token supply. The implied market cap if all tokens that will ever exist were trading today.
- Market Cap
- Current token price × circulating supply (tokens actually available to trade today). Always less than or equal to FDV.
- Circulating Supply
- Tokens currently available to trade, excluding locked, vested, or yet-to-be-minted tokens.
- Total Supply
- Every token that will ever exist, including all locked, vested, and future-minted amounts.
- Vesting Schedule
- The timeline over which locked tokens are released to their owners, gradually increasing circulating supply.
Disclaimer
Important: This article is for educational purposes only. FDV analysis is one component of presale evaluation and does not predict investment outcomes. All crypto investments carry significant risk. CryptoPresaleNews.com is not a licensed financial advisor.
